of population during the same period must have greatly augmented the correspondence of all kinds.”[119] Now it was easy to foresee (though, as will afterwards appear, the very probability was then not merely questioned, but denied) that the proposed reduction to one penny would cause all, or nearly all, this correspondence to pass through the Post Office, which, by its superior organisation and command of means, would render private competition on equal terms altogether futile. I have already remarked on the encouragement afforded by the increased sale of various articles after the reduction of the duties thereon; but perceiving that such reduction could tend to increased sale only by its effect on price, and that the chief element of price is cost, over which legislation has no control, I was naturally led to expect that here, where the reduction would be directly and fully in the price itself, the consequent increase of custom would be very much greater.[120] As a means of giving some indication of the results to be looked for, I took two or three articles, of which, from whatever cause, the price had fallen, and observed how far cheapening had been followed by increase in consumption. Thus, the price of soap having fallen by one-eighth, the consumption had increased by one-third; in tea, a reduction of one-sixth had increased consumption by almost a half; in coffee, a gradual reduction of one-fourth (occurring during the previous thirteen years) had been accompanied by an increase in consumption amounting to three-fold;—while in cotton goods, a similar reduction of one-half, spread over about twenty years, had been accompanied by a corresponding increase of no less than fourfold. Thus, it appeared that reduction in price, even if it does not increase the total expenditure on the article affected, seldom, if ever, permanently lowers its amount.[121] Hence it followed that, even supposing the postage to be reduced to the low rate contemplated, the public would probably continue to expend as much in postage as before; and that thus the gross revenue would be sustained. According to my calculation, this implied an increase in the number of letters posted to the amount of between five- and six-fold. Moreover, the soundness of the principle had already stood the test of experiment, though on a small scale, in the Post Office itself; the chief trial having taken place in the London district, and considerable reductions having also been recently made in the postage of foreign letters, all speedily followed by great increase in the amount of receipts therefrom. Of loss to revenue following reduction of postage, save as a very temporary consequence, I knew no instance. In brief, I arrived at the following conclusions:—