Their army is drawn up in hostile array; it is each day becoming more
numerous and more perfectly prepared. Its generals are the same who have
led it to constant victory; its main body is the veterans of three
campaigns. The Chinese are persuaded, and it is impossible to say not
justly persuaded, of the righteousness of their cause. The Russians can
have no equal confidence either in their strength, or in their moral
position. They are not exactly championing a bad cause, or a lost one,
but, in comparison to the Chinese, they have no legal position. It
remains to be seen whether by force of arms, or by diplomatic
superiority, they can make up for the flaw in their tenure of Kuldja.
Farther on, in the vista of the events yet to come, there looms the
prospect of an Anglo-Chinese alliance, that must be most beneficial to
the peoples of Asia generally. But, before it will be possible for
Englishmen to count upon the presence of the Chinese as a favourable
"factor in the Central Asian question," our relations with China must be
placed upon a firmer and a more friendly basis than any which has yet
existed. We have it in our power to do this, and the ever-widening
breach between Russia and China simplifies our task in no slight degree.
The day will come when Russia will discover that the Kuldja question was
no trivial matter at all, and that to it can be traced many important
events in Central Asia. England may also recognize in it one of the most
useful circumstances that have ever operated in her favour in her long
rivalry with Russia. At the very crisis of our border history, when we
are on the eve of dealing out well merited chastisement to an Ameer of
Cabul, Russia finds herself weakened by being compelled to discuss a
question with China, when her attention is required elsewhere. She will
not yield what the Chinese demand, yet she dare not refuse; and the
latter will simply bide their time until she is hampered elsewhere. It
is no rash prophecy to say that China will be reinstalled, either by
peaceful means or by force, in Kuldja before the close of next year,
probably long before. An alliance between any two of the three great
Asiatic Powers must then be conclusive in all Central Asian matters,
and, before that alliance, the third will have the prudence to submit.
It behoves us to learn our lesson, when that day comes, thoroughly and
in good time.
APPENDIX.
THE POSITION OF LOB-NOR.
Lake Lob-Nor is placed in the map accompanying this volume in accordance
with the explorations of Colonel Prjevalsky in 1876-77; the result of
which was published in Dr. Petermann's _Mittheilungen_ as an extra
number during the spring of the present year. The accuracy of the
gallant explorer in identifying Lob-Nor with his lake of Kara Koshun had
not been challenged when this map was drawn, and when the following good
reasons for doubting its accuracy were published on the 14th of
September, it was too late to make the necessary alteration.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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