The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
1. According to Prof. Skeat (_Etymological Dictionary_) the earliest
known meaning is that of _furious_ action, as in a charge of
cavalry. The etymology, he considers, is connected with the
Teutonic word _rand_ (brim), and implies the furious and irregular
action of a river full to the brim.
2. See the problem paper of Jan. 18, 1854, in the Cambridge
Mathematical Tripos.
3. As, according to Mr H. Godfray, the majority of the candidates
_did_ assume when the problem was once proposed in an
examination. See the _Educational Times_ (Reprint, Vol. VII.
p. 99.)
4. Vide p. 68.
5. It would of course be more complete to take _ten_ alternatives of
direction, and thus to omit none of the digits; but this is much
more troublesome in practice than to confine ourselves to eight.
6. Any more than we picture the shape of an equiangular spiral _at the
centre_.
CHAPTER VI.[1]
_THE SUBJECTIVE SIDE OF PROBABILITY. MEASUREMENT OF BELIEF._
1. Originally written in somewhat of a spirit of protest against what
seemed to me the prevalent disposition to follow De Morgan in taking
too subjective a view of the science. In reading it through now I
cannot find any single sentence to which I could take distinct
objection, though I must admit that if I were writing it entirely
afresh I should endeavour to express myself with less emphasis, and
I have made alterations in that direction. The reader who wishes to
see a view not substantially very different from mine, but expressed
with a somewhat opposite emphasis, can refer to Mr F. Y. Edgeworth's
article on "The Philosophy of Chance" (_Mind_, Vol. IX.)
1. Having now obtained a clear conception of a
certain kind of series, the next enquiry is, What is to be
done with this series? How is it to be employed as a means
of making inferences? The general step that we are now
about to take might be described as one from the objective
to the subjective, from the things themselves to the state of
our minds in contemplating them.
The reader should observe that a substitution has, in a
great number of cases, already been made as a first stage
towards bringing the things into a shape fit for calculation.
This substitution, as described in former chapters, is, in a
measure, a process of _idealization_. The series we actually
meet with are apt to show a changeable type, and the individuals
of them will sometimes transgress their licensed irregularity.
Hence they have to be pruned a little into shape, as
natural objects almost always have before they are capable of
being accurately reasoned about. The form in which the
series emerges is that of a series with a fixed type. This
imaginary or ideal series is the basis of our calculation.
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