The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
17. If we like to consider such a line in one of its
approximate stages, as above indicated, it seems to me that
some of the usual theorems of Probability, where large
numbers are concerned, may safely be applied. If it be
asked, for instance, whether such a line will ultimately tend
to stray indefinitely far from its starting point, Bernoulli's
'Law of Large Numbers' may be appealed to, in virtue of
which we should say that it was excessively unlikely that its
divergence should be relatively great. Recur to our graphical
illustration, and consider first the resultant deviation
of the point (after a great many steps) right or left of the
vertical line through the starting point. Of the eight admissible
motions at each stage two will not affect this relative
position, whilst the other six are equally likely to move us a
step to the right or to the left. Our resultant 'drift' therefore
to the right or left will be analogous to the resultant
difference between the number of heads and tails after a
great many tosses of a penny. Now the well-known outcome
of such a number of tosses is that ultimately the
_proportional_ approximation to the _à priori_ probability, i.e. to
equality of heads and tails, is more and more nearly carried
out, but that the _absolute_ deflection is more and more widely
displayed.
Applying this to the case in point, and remembering
that the results apply equally to the horizontal and vertical
directions, we should say that after any very great number
of such 'steps' as those contemplated, the ratio of our distance
from the starting point to the whole distance travelled
will pretty certainly be small, whereas the actual distance
from it would be large. We should also say that the longer
we continued to produce such a line the more pronounced
would these tendencies become. So far as concerns this test,
and that afforded by the general appearance of the lines
drawn,--this last, as above remarked, being tolerably trustworthy,--I
feel no doubt as to the generally 'random'
character of the rows of figures displayed by the incommensurable
or irrational ratios in question.
As it may interest the reader to see an actual specimen
of such a path I append one representing the arrangement
of the eight digits from 0 to 7 in the value of π. The data
are taken from Mr Shanks' astonishing performance in the
calculation of this constant to 707 places of figures (_Proc. of
R. S._, XXI. p. 319). Of these, after omitting 8 and 9, there
remain 568; the diagram represents the course traced out
by following the direction of these as the clue to our path.
Many of the steps have of course been taken in opposite
directions twice or oftener. The result seems to me to
furnish a very fair graphical indication of randomness. I
have compared it with corresponding paths furnished by
rows of figures taken from logarithmic tables, and in other
ways, and find the results to be much the same.
[Figure: Digits of π as a path.]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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