The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
10. There is another aspect of this question which has
been often overlooked, but which seems to deserve some
attention. Granted that we have an instinct of credence,
why should it be assumed that this must be just of that intensity
which subsequent experience will justify? Our
instincts are implanted in us for good purposes, and are intended
to act immediately and unconsciously. They are,
however, subject to control, and have to be brought into
accordance with what we believe to be true and right. In
other departments of psychology we do not assume that
every spontaneous prompting of nature is to be left just as
we find it, or even that on the average, omitting individual
variations, it is set at that pitch that will be found in the
end to be the best when we come to think about it and assign
its rules. Take, for example, the case of resentment. Here
we have an instinctive tendency, and one that on the whole
is good in its results. But moralists are agreed that almost
all our efforts at self-control are to be directed towards subduing
it and keeping it in its right direction. It is assumed
to be given as a sort of rough protection, and to be set, if
one might so express oneself, at too high a pitch to be
deliberately and consciously acted on in society. May not
something of this kind be the case also with our belief?
I only make a passing reference to this point here, as on
the theory of Probability adopted in this work it does not
appear to be at all material to the science. But it seems
a strong argument against the expediency of commencing
the study of the science from the subjective side, or even of
assigning any great degree of prominence to this side.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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