20. A possible answer to this, and so far as appears the only possible answer, will be, that what we really mean by saying that we half believe in the occurrence of head is to express our conviction that head will certainly happen on the average every other time. And similarly, in the second example, by calling the sum a fair one it is meant that in the long run neither party will gain or lose. As we shall recur presently to the point raised in this form of answer, the only notice that need be taken of it at this point is to call attention to the fact that it entirely abandons the whole question in dispute, for it admits that this partial belief does not in any strict sense apply to the individual event, since it clearly cannot be justified there. At such a result indeed we cannot be surprised; at least we cannot on the theory adopted throughout this Essay. For bearing in mind that the employment of Probability postulates ignorance of the single event, it is not easy to see how we are to justify any other opinion or statement about the single event than a confession of such ignorance. 21. So far then we do not seem to have made the slightest approximation to a solution of the particular question now under examination. The more closely we have analysed special examples, the more unmistakeably are we brought to the conclusion that in the individual instance no justification of anything like quantitative belief is to be found; at least none is to be found in the same sense in which we expect it in ordinary scientific conclusions, whether Inductive or Deductive. And yet we have to face and account for the fact that common impressions, as attested by a whole vocabulary of common phrases, are in favour of the existence of this quantitative belief. How are we to account for this? If we appeal to an example again, and analyse it somewhat more closely, we may yet find our way to some satisfactory explanation.