The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
An appeal to common language is always of service, as
the employment of any distinct word is generally a proof
that mankind have observed some distinct properties in the
things, which have caused them to be singled out and have
that name appropriated to them. There is such a class of
words assigned by popular usage to the kind of events of
which Probability takes account. If we examine them we
shall find, I think, that they direct us unmistakeably to the
two-fold aspect of the question,--the objective and the subjective,
the quality in the events and the state of our minds
in considering them,--that have occupied our attention
during the former chapters.
The word 'extraordinary', for instance, seems to point to
the observed fact, that events are arranged in a sort of _ordo_
or rank. No one of them might be so exactly placed that
we could have inferred its position, but when we take a great
many into account together, running our eye, as it were,
along the line, we begin to see that they really do for the
most part stand in order. Those which stand away from the
line have this divergence observed, and are called extraordinary,
the rest ordinary, or in the line. So too 'irregular'
and 'abnormal' are doubtless used from the appearance
of things, when examined in large numbers, being that
of an arrangement by rule or measure. This only holds
when there are a good many; we could not speak of the
single events being so arranged. Again the word 'law', in
its philosophical sense, has now become quite popularised.
How the term became introduced is not certain, but
there can be little doubt that it was somewhat in this
way:--The effect of a law, in its usual application to
human conduct, is to produce regularity where it did not
previously exist; when then a regularity began to be perceived
in nature, the same word was used, whether the cause
was supposed to be the same or not. In each case there
was the same generality of agreement, subject to occasional
deflection.[8]
On the other hand, observe the words 'wonderful', 'unexpected',
'incredible'. Their connotation describes states
of mind simply; they are of course not confined to Probability,
in the sense of statistical frequency, but imply simply
that the events they denote are such as from some cause we
did not expect would happen, and at which therefore, when
they do happen, we are surprised.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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