The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
32. These emotions then can claim no notice as an
integral portion of any science of inference, and should in
strictness be rigidly excluded from it. But if any of them
are uniform and regular in their production and magnitude,
they may be fairly admitted as accidental and extraneous
accompaniments. This is really the case to some extent
with our surprise. This emotion does show a considerable
degree of uniformity. The rarer any event is the more am I,
in common with most other men, surprised at it when it does
happen. This surprise may range through all degrees, from
the most languid form of interest up to the condition which
we term 'being startled'. And since the surprise seems
to be pretty much the same, under similar circumstances,
at different times, and in the case of different persons, it is
free from that extreme irregularity which is found in most
of the other mental conditions which accompany the contemplation
of unexpected events. Hence our surprise, though,
as stated above, having no proper claim to admission into
the science of Probability, is such a constant and regular
accompaniment of that which Probability is concerned with,
that notice must often be taken of it. References will occasionally
be found to this aspect of the question in the
following chapters.
It may be remarked in passing, for the sake of further
illustration of the subject, that this emotional accompaniment
of surprise, to which we are thus able to assign something
like a fractional value, differs in two important respects
from the commonly accepted fraction of belief. In the first
place, it has what may be termed an independent existence;
it is intelligible by itself. The belief, as we endeavoured to
show, needs explanation and finds it in our consequent conduct.
Not so with the emotion; this stands upon its own
footing, and may be examined in and by itself. Hence, in
the second place, it is as applicable, and as capable of any kind
of justification, in relation to the _single event_, as to a series of
events. In this respect, as will be remembered, it offers a
complete contrast to our state of belief about any one contingent
event. May not these considerations help to account
for the general acceptance of the doctrine, that we have a
certain definite and measurable amount of belief about these
events? I cannot help thinking that what is so obviously
true of the emotional portion of the belief, has been unconsciously
transferred to the other or intellectual portion of the
compound condition, to which it is not applicable, and where
it cannot find a justification.
33. A further illustration may now be given of the
subjective view of Probability at present under discussion.
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