The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
1. In the previous chapter, an investigation was made into
what may be called, from the analogy of Logic, Immediate
Inferences. Given that nine men out of ten, of any assigned
age, live to forty, what could be inferred about the prospect
of life of any particular man? It was shown that, although
this step was very far from being so simple as it is frequently
supposed to be, and as the corresponding step really is in
Logic, there was nevertheless an intelligible sense in which
we might speak of the amount of our belief in any one of
these 'proportional propositions,' as they may succinctly be
termed, and justify that amount. We must now proceed to
the consideration of inferences more properly so called, I
mean inferences of the kind analogous to those which form the
staple of ordinary logical treatises. In other words, having
ascertained in what manner particular propositions could be
inferred from the general propositions which included them,
we must now examine in what cases one general proposition
can be inferred from another. By a general proposition here
is meant, of course, a general proposition of the statistical
kind contemplated in Probability. The rules of such inference
being very few and simple, their consideration will not
detain us long. From the data now in our possession we are
able to deduce the rules of probability given in ordinary
treatises upon the science. It would be more correct to say
that we are able to deduce _some_ of these rules, for, as will
appear on examination, they are of two very different kinds,
resting on entirely distinct grounds. They might be divided
into those which are formal, and those which are more or less
experimental. This may be otherwise expressed by saying
that, from the kind of series described in the first chapters,
some rules will follow necessarily by the mere application of
arithmetic; whilst others either depend upon peculiar hypotheses,
or demand for their establishment continually renewed
appeals to experience, and extension by the aid of the
various resources of Induction. We shall confine our attention
at present principally to the former class; the latter can
only be fully understood when we have considered the connection
of our science with Induction.
2. The fundamental rules of Probability strictly so
called, that is the formal rules, may be divided into two
classes,--those obtained by addition or subtraction on the
one hand, corresponding to what are generally termed the
connection of exclusive or incompatible events;[1] and those
obtained by multiplication or division, on the other hand,
corresponding to what are commonly termed dependent
events. We will examine these in order.
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