4. The above inferences are necessary, in the sense in which arithmetical inferences are necessary, and they do not demand for their establishment any arbitrary hypothesis. We assume in them no more than is warranted, and in fact necessitated by the data actually given to us, and make our inferences from these data by the help of arithmetic. In the simple examples given above nothing is required beyond arithmetic in its most familiar form, but it need hardly be added that in practice examples may often present themselves which will require much profounder methods than these. It may task all the resources of that higher and more abstract arithmetic known as algebra to extract a solution. But as the necessity of appeal to such methods as these does not touch the principles of this part of the subject we need not enter upon them here. 5. The formula next to be discussed stands upon a somewhat different footing from the above in respect of its cogency and freedom from appeal to experience, or to hypothesis. In the two former instances we considered cases in which the data were supposed to be given under the conditions that the properties which distinguished the different kinds of events whose frequency was discussed, were respectively known to be disconnected and known to be connected. Let us now suppose that no such conditions are given to us. One man in ten, say, has black hair, and one in twelve is short-sighted; what conclusions could we then draw as to the chance of any given man having one only of these two attributes, or neither, or both? It is clearly possible that the properties in question might be inconsistent with one another, so as never to be found combined in the same person; or all the short-sighted might have black hair; or the properties might be allotted[3] in almost any other proportion whatever. If we are perfectly ignorant upon these points, it would seem that no inferences whatever could be drawn about the required chances.