The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Inferences however _are_ drawn, and practically, in most
cases, quite justly drawn. An escape from the apparent
indeterminateness of the problem, as above described, is
found by assuming that, not merely will one-tenth of the
whole number of men have black hair (for this was given as
one of the data), but also that one-tenth alike of those who
are and who are not short-sighted have black hair. Let us
take a batch of 1200, as a sample of the whole. Now, from
the data which were originally given to us, it will easily be
seen that in every such batch there will be on the average
120 who have black hair, and therefore 1080 who have not.
And here in strict right we ought to stop, at least until we
have appealed again to experience; but we do not stop here.
From data which we assume, we go on to infer that of the 120,
10 (i.e. one-twelfth of 120) will be short-sighted, and
110 (the remainder) will not. Similarly we infer that of the 1080,
90 are short-sighted, and 990 are not. On the whole,
then, the 1200 are thus divided:--black-haired short-sighted, 10;
short-sighted without black hair, 90; black-haired men
who are not short-sighted, 110; men who are neither short-sighted
nor have black hair, 990.
This rule, expressed in its most general form, in the
language of Probability, would be as follows:--If the chances
of a thing being p and q are respectively 1/m and 1/n, then the
chance of its being both p and q is 1/mn, p and not q is (n - 1)/mn,
q and not p is (m - 1)/mn, not p and not q is ((m - 1)(n - 1))/mn,
where p and q are independent. The sum of these chances
is obviously unity; as it ought to be, since one or other of
the four alternatives must necessarily exist.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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