The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
15. Now in the performance of such a logical process
there are two considerations to which the reader's attention
must for a moment be directed. They are simple enough in
this case, but will need careful explanation in the corresponding
case in Probability. In the first place, it is clear that
whenever we can make any inference at all, we can do so
with absolute certainty. Logic, within its own domain,
knows nothing of hesitation or doubt. If the middle term
is appropriate it serves to connect the extremes in such a
way as to preclude all uncertainty about the conclusion;
if it is not, there is so far an end of the matter: no conclusion
can be drawn, and we are therefore left where we were.
Assuming our premises to be correct, we either know our
conclusion for certain, or we know nothing whatever about
it. In the second place, it should be noticed that none of
the possible alternatives in the shape of such major premises
as those given above can ever contradict any of the others,
or be at all inconsistent with them. Regarded as isolated
propositions, there is of course nothing to secure such harmony;
they have very different predicates, and may seem
quite out of each other's reach for either support or opposition.
But by means of the other premise they are in each
case brought into relation with one another, and the general
interests of truth and consistency prevent them therefore
from contradicting one another. As isolated propositions
it might have been the case that all men live to fifty, and
that no Indian residents do so, but having recognised that
some men are residents in India, we see at once that these
premises are inconsistent, and therefore that one or other
of them must be rejected. In all applied logic this necessity
of avoiding self-contradiction is so obvious and imperious
that no one would think it necessary to lay down the formal
postulate that all such possible major premises are to be
mutually consistent. To suppose that this postulate is not
complied with, would be in effect to make two or more contradictory
assumptions about matters of fact.
16. But now observe the difference when we attempt
to take the corresponding step in Probability. For ordinary
propositions, universal or particular, substitute statistical
propositions of what we have been in the habit of calling
the 'proportional' kind. In other words, instead of asking
whether the man will live for twenty years, let us ask whether
he will live for one year? We shall be unable to find any
universal propositions which will cover the case, but we may
without difficulty obtain an abundance of appropriate proportional
ones. They will be of the following description:--Of
men aged 30, 98 in 100 live another year; of residents in
India a smaller proportion survive, let us for example say
90 in 100; of men suffering from cancer a smaller proportion
still, let us say 20 in 100.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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