The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
This variety of classes to which the individual may be
referred owing to his possession of a multiplicity of attributes,
has an important bearing on the process of inference
which was indicated in the earlier sections of this chapter,
and which we must now examine in more special reference
to our particular subject.
14. It will serve to bring out more clearly the nature
of some of those peculiarities of the step which we are now
about to take in the case of Probability, if we first examine
the form which the corresponding step assumes in the case
of ordinary Logic. Suppose then that we wished to ascertain
whether a certain John Smith, a man of thirty, who is
amongst other things a resident in India, and distinctly
affected with cancer, will continue to survive there for
twenty years longer. The terms in which the man is thus
introduced to us refer him to different classes in the way
already indicated. Corresponding to these classes there will
be a number of propositions which have been obtained by
previous observations and inductions, and which we may
therefore assume to be available and ready at hand when
we want to make use of them. Let us conceive them to
be such as these following:--Some men live to fifty; some
Indian residents live to fifty; no man suffering thus from
cancer lives for five years. From the first and second of these
premises nothing whatever can be inferred, for they are both[4]
particular propositions, and therefore lead to no conclusion
in this case. The third answers our enquiry decisively.
To the logical reader it will hardly be necessary to point
out that the process here under consideration is that of
finding middle terms which shall serve to connect the
subject and predicate of our conclusion. This subject and
predicate in the case in question, are the individual before
us and his death within the stated period. Regarded by
themselves there is nothing in common between them, and
therefore no link by which they may be connected or disconnected
with each other. The various classes above
referred to are a set of such middle terms, and the propositions
belonging to them are a corresponding set of major
premises. By the help of any one of them we are enabled,
under suitable circumstances, to connect together the subject
and predicate of the conclusion, that is, to infer whether the
man will or will not live twenty years.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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