The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
more in quantity than we lose in quality. We finally take
our stand at the point where we first obtain statistics drawn
from a sufficiently large range of observation to secure the
requisite degree of stability and uniformity.
20. In such an example as the one just mentioned,
where one of the successive classes--man--is a well-defined
natural kind or species, there is such a complete break in
each direction at this point, that every one is prompted to
take his stand here. On the one hand, no enquirer would
ever think of introducing any reference to the higher classes
with fewer attributes, such as animal or organized being:
and on the other hand, the inferior classes, created by our
taking notice of his employment or place of residence, &c.,
do not as a rule differ sufficiently in their characteristics
from the class _man_ to make it worth our while to attend
to them.
Now and then indeed these characteristics do rise into
importance, and whenever this is the case we concentrate
our attention upon the class to which they correspond, that
is, the class which is marked off by their presence. Thus,
for instance, the quality of consumptiveness separates any
one off so widely from the majority of his fellow-men in all
questions pertaining to mortality, that statistics about the
lives of consumptive men differ materially from those which
refer to men in general. And we see the result; if a consumptive
man can effect an insurance at all, he must do it
for a much higher premium, calculated upon his special
circumstances. In other words, the attribute is sufficiently
important to mark off a fresh class or series. So with insurance
against accident. It is not indeed attempted to
make a special rate of insurance for the members of each
separate trade, but the differences of risk to which they are
liable oblige us to take such facts to some degree into
account. Hence, trades are roughly divided into two or
three classes, such as the ordinary, the hazardous, and the
extra-hazardous, each having to pay its own rate of premium.
21. Where one or other of the classes thus corresponds
to natural kinds, or involves distinctions of co-ordinate importance
with those of natural kinds, the process is not
difficult; there is almost always some one of these classes
which is so universally recognised to be the appropriate one,
that most persons are quite unaware of there being any
necessity for a process of selection. Except in the cases
where a man has a sickly constitution, or follows a dangerous
employment, we seldom have occasion to collect statistics for
him from any class but that of men in general of his age in
the country.
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