The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
30. Here as elsewhere there is a continuous process
of specialization going on. The needs of a gradually widening
experience are perpetually calling upon us to subdivide
classes which are found to be too heterogeneous. Sometimes
the only complaint that has to be made is that the class to
which we are obliged to refer is found to be somewhat too
broad to suit our purpose, and that it might be subdivided
with convenience. This is the case, as has been shown above,
when an Insurance office finds that its increasing business
makes it possible and desirable to separate off the men who
follow some particular trades from the rest of their fellow-countrymen.
Similarly in every other department in which
statistics are made use of. This increased demand for specificness
leads, in fact, as naturally in this direction, as does
the progress of civilization to the subdivision of trades in
any town or country. So in reference to the other kind of
perplexity mentioned above. Nothing is more common in
those sciences or practical arts, in which deduction is but
little available, and where in consequence our knowledge is
for the most part of the empirical kind, than to meet with
suggestions which point more or less directly in contrary
directions. Whenever some new substance is discovered or
brought into more general use, those who have to deal with
it must be familiar with such a state of things. The medical
man who has to employ a new drug may often find himself
confronted by the two distinct recommendations, that on
the one hand it should be employed for certain diseases, and
that on the other hand it should not be tried on certain constitutions.
A man with such a constitution, but suffering
from such a disease, presents himself; which recommendation
is the doctor to follow? He feels at once obliged to
set to work to collect narrower and more special statistics,
in order to escape from such an ambiguity.
31. In this and a multitude of analogous cases
afforded by the more practical arts it is not of course necessary
that numerical data should be quoted and appealed
to; it is sufficient that the judgment is more or less consciously
determined by them. All that is necessary to make
the examples appropriate is that we should admit that in
their case statistical data are our ultimate appeal in the
present state of knowledge. Of course if the empirical
laws can be resolved into their component causes we may
appeal to direct deduction, and in this case the employment
of statistics, and consequently the use of the theory of
Probability, may be superseded.
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