In this direction therefore, as time proceeds, the advance of statistical refinement by the incessant subdivision of classes to meet the developing wants of man is plain enough. But if we glance backwards to a more primitive stage, we shall soon see in what a very imperfect state the operation commences. At this early stage, however, Probability and Induction are so closely connected together as to be very apt to be merged into one, or at any rate to have their functions confounded. 32. Since the generalization of our statistics is found to belong to Induction, this process of generalization may be regarded as prior to, or at least independent of, Probability. We have, moreover, already discussed (in Chapter VI.) the step corresponding to what are termed immediate inferences, and (in Chapter VII.) that corresponding to syllogistic inferences. Our present position therefore is that in which we may consider ourselves in possession of any number of generalizations, but wish to employ them so as to make inferences about a given individual; just as in one department of common logic we are engaged in finding middle terms to establish the desired conclusion. In this latter case the process is found to be extremely simple, no accumulation of different middle terms being able to lead to any real ambiguity or contradiction. In Probability, however, the case is different. Here, if we attempt to draw inferences about the individual case before us, as often is attempted--in the Rule of Succession for example--we shall encounter the full force of this ambiguity and contradiction. Treat the question, however, fairly, and all difficulty disappears. Our inference really is not about the individuals as individuals, but about series or successions of them. We wished to know whether John Smith will die within the year; this, however, cannot be known. But John Smith, by the possession of many attributes, belongs to many different series. The multiplicity of middle terms, therefore, is what ought to be expected. We _can_ know whether a succession of men, residents in India, consumptives, &c. die within a year. We may make our selection, therefore, amongst these, and in the long run the belief and consequent conduct of ourselves and other persons (as described in Chapter VI.) will become capable of justification. With regard to choosing one of these series rather than another, we have two opposing principles of guidance. On the one hand, the more special the series the better; for, though not more right in the end, we shall thus be more nearly right all along. But, on the other hand, if we try to make the series too special, we shall generally meet the practical objection arising from insufficient statistics.