The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Few persons, however, would go so far as to interpret it
in this sense. All that troubles them is the fear that somehow
this general regularity may be found to carry with it
causation, certainly in the sense of regular invariable sequence,
and probably also with the further association of
compulsion. Rejecting the latter association as utterly
unphilosophical, I cannot even see that the former consequence
can be admitted as really proved, though it doubtless
gains some confirmation from this source.
6. The nature of the argument against free-will,
drawn from statistics, at least in the form in which it is very
commonly expressed, seems to me exceedingly defective.
The antecedents and consequents, in the case of our volitions,
must clearly be supposed to be very nearly _immediately_
in succession, if anything approaching to causation is to be
established: whereas in statistical enquiries the data are
often widely separate, if indeed they do not apply merely
to single groups of actions or results. For instance, in the
case of the misdirected letters, what it is attempted to prove
is that each writer was so much the 'victim of circumstances'
(to use a common but misleading expression) that he could
not have done otherwise than he did under his circumstances.
But really no accumulation of figures to prove that the
number of such letters remains the same year by year, can
have much bearing upon this doctrine, even though they
were accompanied by corresponding figures which should
connect the forgetfulness thus indicated with some other
characteristics in the writers. So with the number of
suicides. If 250 people do, or lately did, annually put an
end to themselves in London, the fact, as it thus stands by
itself, may be one of importance to the philanthropist and
statesman, but it needs bringing into much closer relation
with psychological elements if it is to convince us that the
actions of men are always instances of inflexible order. In
fact, instead of having secured our A and B here in closest
intimacy of succession to one another,--to employ the symbolic
notation commonly used in works on Inductive Logic
to illustrate the causal connection,--we find them separated
by a considerable interval; often indeed we merely
have an A or a B by itself.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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