The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
7. Again, another deficiency in such reasoning seems
to be the laying undue weight upon the mere regularity or
persistency of the statistics. These may lead to very important
results, but they are not exactly what is wanted
for the purpose of proving anything against the freedom
of the will; it is not indeed easy to see what connection
this has with such facts as that the annual number of thefts
or of suicides remains at pretty nearly the same figure.
Statistical uniformity seems to me to establish nothing else,
at least directly, in the case of human actions, than it does
in that of physical characteristics. Take but one instance,
that of the misdirected letters. We were already aware
that the height, weight, chest measurement, and so on, of
a large number of persons preserved a tolerably regular
average amidst innumerable deflections, and we were prepared
by analogy to anticipate the same regularity in their
mental characteristics. All that we gain, by counting the
numbers of letters which are posted without addresses, is
a certain amount of direct evidence that this is the case.
Just as observations of the former kind had already shown
that statistics of the strength and stature of the human
body grouped themselves about a mean, so do those of the
latter that a similar state of things prevails in respect of the
readiness and general trustworthiness of the memory. The
evidence is not so direct and conclusive in the latter case,
for the memory is not singled out and subjected to measurement
by itself, but is taken in combination with innumerable
other influencing circumstances. Still there can be little
doubt that the statistics tell on the whole in this direction,
and that by duly varying and extending them they may
obtain considerable probative force.
The fact is that Probability has nothing more to do with
Natural Theology, either in its favour or against it, than the
general principles of Logic or Induction have. It is simply a
body of rules for drawing inferences about classes of events
which are distinguished by a certain quality. The believer
in a Deity will, by the study of nature, be led to form an
opinion about His works, and so to a certain extent about
His attributes. But it is surely unreasonable to propose
that he should abandon his belief because the sequence of
events,--not, observe, their general tendency towards happiness
or misery, good or evil,--is brought about in a way
different from what he had expected; whether it be by displaying
order where he had expected irregularity, or by
involving the machinery of secondary causes where he had
expected immediate agency.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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