The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
The remaining consideration would be the relative frequency
of the 'design' alternative,--what is called its _à priori_
probability,--that is, the relative frequency with
which such builders can be supposed to have aimed at that
ratio; with the obvious implied assumption that if they did
aim at it they would certainly secure it. Considering our
extreme ignorance of the attainments of the builders it is
obvious that no attempt at numerical appreciation is here
possible. If indeed the 'design' was interpreted to mean
conscious resolve to produce that ratio, instead of mere resolve
to employ some method which happened to produce
it, few persons would feel much hesitation. Not only do
we feel tolerably certain that the builders did not know the
value of π, except in the rude way in which all artificers
must know it; but we can see no rational motive, if they
did know it, which should induce them to perpetuate it
in their building. If, however, to adopt an ingenious suggestion,[5]
we suppose that the builder may have proceeded
in the following fashion, the matter assumes a different
aspect. Suppose that having decided on the height of his
pyramid he drew a circle with that as radius: that, laying
down a cord along the line of this circle, he drew this cord
out into a square, which square marked the base of the
building. Hardly any simpler means could be devised in
a comparatively rude age; and it is obvious that the circumference
of the base, being equal to the length of the
cord, would bear exactly the admitted ratio to the height.
In other words, the exact attainment of a geometric value
does not imply a knowledge of that ratio, but merely of some
method which involves and displays it. A teredo can bore,
as well as any of us, a hole which displays the geometric properties
of a circle, but we do not credit it with corresponding
knowledge.
As before said, all numerical appreciation of the likelihood
of the design alternative is out of the question. But,
_if_ the precision is equal to what Mr Smyth claimed, I suppose
that most persons (with the above suggestion before
them) will think it somewhat more likely that the coincidence
was not a chance one.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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