The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
16. There still remains a serious, and highly interesting
speculative consideration. In the above argument we took
it for granted, in calculating the chance alternative, that
only _one_ of the 10,000 possible values was favourable; that
is, we took it for granted that the ratio π was the only one
whose claims, so to say, were before the court. But it is
clear that if we had obtained just double this ratio the result
would have been of similar significance, for it would have
been simply the ratio of the circumference to the diameter.
In fact, Mr Smyth's selected ratio,--the height to twice the
breadth of the base as compared with the diameter to the
circumference,--is obviously only one of a plurality of ratios.
Again; if the measured results had shown that the ratio of
the height to one side of the base was 1 : sqrt{2} (i.e. that of a
side to a diagonal of a square) or 1 : sqrt{3} (i.e. that of a side
to a diagonal of a cube) would not such results equally show
evidence of design? Proceeding in this way, we might
suggest one known mathematical ratio after another until
most of the 10,000 supposed possible values had been taken
into account. We might then argue thus: since almost
every possible height of the pyramid would correspond to
_some_ mathematical ratio, a builder, ignorant of them all
alike, would be not at all unlikely to stumble upon one or
other of them: why then attribute design to him in one case
rather than another?
17. The answer to this objection has been already
hinted at. Everything turns upon the _conventional_ estimate
of one result as compared with another. Revert, for simplicity
to the coins. Ten heads is just as likely as alternate
heads and tails, or five heads followed by five tails; or, in
fact, as any one of the remaining 1023 possible cases. But
universal convention has picked out a run of ten as being
remarkable. Here, of course, the convention seems a very
natural and indeed inevitable one, but in other cases it is
wholly arbitrary. For instance, in cards, "queen of spades
and knave of diamonds" is exactly as uncommon as any
other such pair: moreover, till _bezique_ was introduced it
offered presumably no superior interest over any other
specified pair. But during the time when that game was
very popular this combination was brought into the category
of coincidences in which interest was felt; and, given dishonesty
amongst the players, its chance of being designed
stood at once on a much better footing.[6]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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