The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Returning then to the pyramid, we see that in balancing
the claims of chance and design we must, in fairness to the
latter, reckon to its account several other values as well as
that of π, e.g. sqrt{2} and sqrt{3}, and a few more such simple and
familiar ratios, as well as some of their multiples. But
though the number of such values which _might_ be reckoned,
on the ground that they are actually known to us, is infinite,
yet the number that _ought_ to be reckoned, on the ground
that they could have been familiar to the builders of a
pyramid, are very few. The order of probability for or against
the existence of design will not therefore be seriously altered
here by such considerations.[7]
18. Up to this point it will be observed that what we
have been balancing against each other are two forms of
agency,--of human agency, that is,--one acting through
chance, and the other by direct design. In this case we
know where we are, for we can thoroughly understand agency
of this kind. The problem is indeed but seldom numerically
soluble, and in most cases not soluble at all, but it is at any
rate capable of being clearly stated. We know the kind of
answer to be expected and the reasons which would serve to
determine it, if they were attainable.
The next stage in the enquiry would be that of balancing
ordinary human chance agency against,--I will not call it
direct spiritualist agency, for that would be narrowing the
hypothesis unnecessarily,--but against all other possible
causes. Some of the investigations of the Society for
Psychical Research will furnish an admirable illustration of
what is intended by this statement. There is a full discussion
of these applications in a recent essay by Mr F. Y.
Edgeworth;[8] but as his account of the matter is connected
with other calculations and diagrams I can only quote it in
part. But I am in substantial agreement with him.
"It is recorded that 1833 guesses were made by a 'percipient'
as to the suit of cards which the 'agent' had fixed
upon. The number of successful guesses was 510, considerably
above 458, the number which, as being the quarter of 1833,
would, on the supposition of pure chance, be more
likely than any other number. Now, by the Law of Error,
we are able approximately to determine the probability of
such an excess occurring by chance. It is equal to the extremity
of the tail of a probability-curve such as [those we
have already had occasion to examine].... The proportion
of this extremity of the tail to the whole body is 0.003 to 1.
That fraction, then, is the probability of a chance shot
striking that extremity of the tail; the probability that, if
the guessing were governed by pure chance, a number of
successful guesses equal or greater than 510 would occur":
odds, that is, of about 332 to 1 against such occurrence.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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