The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
3. Of course this conventional estimate is nothing different in kind
from that which may attach to _any_ order or succession. Ten heads
in succession is intrinsically or objectively indistinguishable in
character from alternate heads and tails, or seven heads and three
tails, &c. Its distinction only consists in its almost universal
acceptance as remarkable.
4. _Our Inheritance in the Great Pyramid_, Ed. III. 1877.
5. Made in _Nature_ (Jan. 24, 1878) by Mr J. G. Jackson. It must be
remarked that Mr Smyth's alternative statement of his case leads up
to that explanation:--"The vertical height of the great pyramid is
the radius of a theoretical circle the length of whose curved
circumference is exactly equal to the sum of the lengths of the four
straight sides of the actual and practical square base." As regards
the alternatives of chance and design, here, it must be remembered
in justice to Mr Smyth's argument that the antithesis he admits to
chance is not human, but divine design.
6. See Cournot, _Essai sur les fondements de nos connaissances_.
Vol. I. p. 71.
7. It deserves notice that considerations of this kind have found
their way into the Law Courts though of course without any attempt
at numerical valuation. Thus, in the celebrated De Ros trial, in so
far as the evidence was indirect, one main ground of suspicion seems
to have been that Lord De Ros, when dealing at whist, obtained far
more court cards than chance could be expected to assign him; and
that in consequence his average gains for several years in
succession were unusually large. The counsel for the defence urged
that still larger gains had been secured by other players without
suspicion of unfairness,--(I cannot find that it was explained over
how large an area of experience these instances had been sought; nor
how far the magnitude of the stakes, as distinguished from the
number of successes, accounted for that of the actual gains),--and
that large allowance must be made for skill where the actual gains
were computed. (See the _Times_' report, Feb. 11, 1837.)
8. _Metretike_. At the end of this volume will be found a useful list
of a number of other publications by the same author on allied
topics.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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