The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
9. That is, if we look simply to statistical results, as Arbuthnott
did, and as we should do if we were examining the tosses of a
penny. If the remarkable theory of Dr Düsing (_Die Regulierung des
Geschlechts-verhältnisses..._ Jena, 1884) be confirmed, the matter
would assume a somewhat different aspect. He attempts to show, both
on physiological grounds, and by analysis of statistics referring to
men and animals, that there is a decidedly _compensatory_ process at
work. That is, if for any cause either sex attains a preponderance,
agencies are at once set in motion which tend to redress the
balance. This is a modification and improvement of the older theory,
that the relative age of the parents has something to do with the
sex of the offspring.
Quetelet (_Letters_, p. 61) has attempted to _prove_ a proposition
about the succession of male and female births by certain
experiments supposed to be tried upon an urn with black and white
balls in it. But this is going too far. (See the note at the end of
this chapter.)
10. It is precisely analogous to the conclusion that the _flowers_ of
the daisies (as distinguished from the _plants_, v. p. 109) are not
distributed at random, but have a tendency to go in groups of two or
more. Mere observation shows this: and then, from our knowledge of
the growth of plants we may infer that these little groups spring
from the same root.
11. In this discussion, writers often speak of the probability of a
"_physical connection_" between these double stars. The phrase seems
misleading, for on the usual hypothesis of universal gravitation
_all_ stars are physically connected, by gravitation. It is
therefore better, as above, to make it simply a question of relative
proximity, and to leave it to astronomy to infer what follows from
unusual proximity.
12. Professor Forbes in the paper in the Philosophical Magazine
already referred to (Ch. VII. §18) gave several diagrams to show
what were the actual arrangements of a random distribution. He
scattered peas over a chess-board, and then counted the number which
rested on each square. His figures seem to show that the general
appearance of the stars is much the same as that produced by such a
plan of scattering.
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