The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Some recent investigations by Mr R. A. Proctor seem to show,
however, that there are at least two exceptions to this tolerably
uniform distribution. (1) He has ascertained that the stars are
decidedly more thickly aggregated in the Milky Way than
elsewhere. So far as this is to be relied on the argument is the
same as in the case of the double stars; it tends to prove that the
proximity of the stars in the Milky Way is not merely apparent, but
actual. (2) He has ascertained that there are two large areas, in
the North and South hemispheres, in which the stars are much more
thickly aggregated than elsewhere. Here, it seems to me,
Probability proves nothing: we are simply denying that the
distribution is uniform. What may follow in the way of inferences
as to the physical process of causation by which the stars have been
disposed is a question for the Astronomer. See Mr Proctor's _Essays
on Astronomy_, p. 297. Also a series of Essays in _The Universe and
the coming Transits_.
CHAPTER XI.
_ON CERTAIN CONSEQUENCES OF THE OBJECTIVE TREATMENT OF A SCIENCE OF
INFERENCE._[1]
1. In the previous edition a large part of this chapter was devoted to
the general consideration of the distinction between a Material and
a Conceptualist view of Logic. I have omitted most of this here, as
also a large part of a chapter devoted to the detailed discussion of
the Law of Causation, as I hope before very long to express my
opinions on these subjects more fully, and more appropriately, in a
treatise on the general principles of Inductive Logic.
1. Students of Logic are familiar with that broad
distinction between the two methods of treatment to which
the names of Material and Conceptualist may be applied.
The distinction was one which had been gradually growing
up under other names before it was emphasized, and treated
as a distinction within the field of Logic proper, by the publication
of Mill's well known work. No one, for instance,
can read Whewell's treatises on Induction, or Herschel's
Discourse, without seeing that they are treating of much the
same subject-matter, and regarding it in much the same
way, as that which Mill discussed under the name of Logic,
though they were not disposed to give it that name. That
is, these writers throughout took it for granted that what
they had to do was to systematise the facts of nature in
their objective form, and under their widest possible treatment,
and to expound the principal modes of inference and
the principal practical aids in the investigation of these
modes of inference, which reason could suggest and which
experience could justify. What Mill did was to bring these
methods into close relation with such portions of the old
scholastic Logic as he felt able to retain, to work them out
into much fuller detail, to systematize them by giving them
a certain philosophical and psychological foundation,--and
to entitle the result _Logic_.
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