The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
But of course all this is supposed to be done by human
minds, and therefore if we enquire whether notions or concepts,--call
them what we will,--have no place in such a
scheme it must necessarily be admitted that they _have_ some
place. The facts which form our starting point must be
grasped by an intelligent being before inference can be built
upon them; and the 'facts' which form the conclusion have
often, at any rate for some time, no place anywhere else than
in the mind of man. But no one can read Mill's treatise, for
instance, without noticing how slight is his reference to this
aspect of the question. He remarks, in almost contemptuous
indifference, that the man who digs must of course have a
notion of the ground he digs and of the spade he puts into
it, but he evidently considers that these 'notions' need not
much more occupy the attention of the speculative logician,
in so far as his mere inferences are concerned, than they
occupy that of the husbandman.
3. It must be admitted that there is some warrant
for this omission of all reference to the subjective side of
inference so long as we are dealing with Inductive Logic.
The inductive _discoverer_ is of course in a very different
position. If he is worthy of the name his mind at every
moment will be teeming with notions which he would be as
far as any one from calling facts: he is busy making them
such to the best of his power. But the logician who follows
in his steps, and whose business it is to explain and justify
what his leader has discovered, is rather apt to overlook this
mental or uncertain stage. What he mostly deals in are the
'complete inductions' and 'well-grounded generalizations'
and so forth, or the exploded errors which contradict them:
the prisoners and the corpses respectively, which the real
discoverer leaves on the field behind him whilst he presses
on to complete his victory. The whole method of science,--expository
as contrasted with militant,--is to emphasize the
distinction between fact and non-fact, and to treat of little
else but these two. In other words a treatise on Inductive
Logic _can_ be written without any occasion being found to
define what is meant by a notion or concept, or even to employ
such terms.
4. And yet, when we come to look more closely, signs
may be detected even within the field of Inductive Logic,
of an occasional breaking down of the sharp distinction in
question; we may meet now and then with entities (to use
the widest term attainable) in reference to which it would
be hard to say that they are either facts or conceptions.
For instance, Inductive Logic has often occasion to make use
of Hypotheses: to which of the above two classes are these
to be referred? They do not seem in strictness to belong to
either; nor are they, as will presently be pointed out, by any
means a solitary instance of the kind.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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