The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
It is true that within the province of Inductive Logic
these hypotheses do not give much trouble on this score.
However vague may be the form in which they first present
themselves to the philosopher's mind, they have not much
business to come before us in our capacity of logicians until
they are well on their way, so to say, towards becoming
facts: until they are beginning to harden into that firm
tangible shape in which they will eventually appear. We
generally have some such recommendations given to us as
that our hypotheses shall be well-grounded and reasonable.
This seems only another way of telling us that however
freely the philosopher may make his guesses in the privacy
of his own study, he had better not bring them out into
public until they can with fair propriety be termed facts,
even though the name be given with some qualification, as
by terming them 'probable facts.' The reason, therefore,
why we do not take much account of this intermediate state
in the hypothesis, when we are dealing with the inductive
processes, is that here at any rate it plays only a temporary
part; its appearance in that guise is but very fugitive. If
the hypothesis be a sound one, it will soon take its place as
an admitted fact; if not, it will soon be rejected altogether.
Its state as a hypothesis is not a normal one, and therefore
we have not much occasion to scrutinize its characteristics.
In so saying, it must of course be understood that we are
speaking as inductive logicians; the philosopher in his workshop
ought, as already remarked, to be familiar enough with
the hypothesis in every stage of its existence from its origin;
but the logician's duty is different, dealing as he does with
proof rather than with the processes of original investigation
and discovery.
We might indeed even go further, and say that in many
cases the hypothesis does not present itself to the reader,
that is to the recipient of the knowledge, until it has ceased
to deserve that name at all. It may be first suggested to
him along with the proof which establishes it, he not having
had occasion to think of it before. It thus comes at a single
step out of the obscurity of the unknown into the full possession
of its rights as a fact, skipping practically the intermediate
or hypothetical stage altogether. The original investigator
himself may have long pondered over it, and kept
it present to his mind, in this its dubious stage, but finally
have given it to the world with that amount of evidence
which raises it at once in the minds of others to the level of
commonly accepted facts.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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