The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
6. But when we step into Probability, and treat this
from the same material or Phenomenal point of view, we can
no longer neglect the question which is thus presented to us.
The difficulty cannot here be rejected, as referring to what is
merely temporary or occasional. The intermediate condition
between conjecture and fact, so far from being temporary
or occasional only, is here normal. It is just the condition
which is specially characteristic of Probability. Hence it
follows that however decidedly we may reject the Conceptualist
theory we cannot altogether reject the use of
Conceptualist language. If we can prove that a given man
will die next year, or attain sufficiently near to proof to
leave us practically certain on the point, we may speak of
his death as a (future) fact. But if we merely contemplate
his death as probable? This is the sort of inference, or
substitute for inference, with which Probability is specially
concerned. We may, if we so please, speak of 'probable
facts,' but if we examine the meaning of the words we
may find them not merely obscure, but self-contradictory.
Doubtless there are facts here, in the fullest sense of the
term, namely the statistics upon which our opinion is ultimately
based, for these are known and admitted by all who
have looked into the matter. The same language may also
be applied to that extension of these statistics by induction
which is involved in the assertion that similar statistics
will be found to prevail elsewhere, for these also may rightfully
claim universal acceptance. But these statements, as
was abundantly shown in the earlier chapters, stand on a
very different footing from a statement concerning the individual
event; the establishment and discussion of the
former belong by rights to Induction, and only the latter
to Probability.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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