The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
7. It is true that for want of appropriate terms to
express such things we are often induced, indeed compelled,
to apply the same name of 'facts' to such individual contingencies.
We should not, for instance, hesitate to speak of
the fact of the man dying being probable, possible, unlikely,
or whatever it might be. But I cannot help regarding such
expressions as a strictly incorrect usage arising out of a
deficiency of appropriate technical terms. It is doubtless
certain that one or other of the two alternatives must happen,
but this alternative certainty is not the subject of our contemplation;
what we have before us is the _single_ alternative,
which is notoriously uncertain. It is this, and this only,
which is at present under notice, and whose occurrence has
to be estimated. We have surely no right to dignify this
with the name of a fact, under any qualifications, when the
opposite alternative has claims, not perhaps actually equal to,
but at any rate not much inferior to its own. Such language,
as already remarked, may be quite right in Inductive logic,
where we are only concerned with conjectures of such a high
degree of likelihood that their non-occurrence need not be
taken into practical account, and which are moreover regarded
as merely temporary. But in Probability the conjecture
may have any degree of likelihood about it; it may be just
as likely as the other alternative, nay it may be much less
likely. In these latter cases, for instance, if the chances are
very much against the man's death, it is surely an abuse of
language to speak of the 'fact' of his dying, even though we
qualify it by declaring it to be highly improbable. The
subject-matter essential to Probability being the uncertain,
we can never with propriety employ upon it language which
in its original and correct application is only appropriate to
what is actually or approximately certain.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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