The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
But even if there were not this particular objection, it
does not appear that anything is to be gained in the way of
intelligibility or method by such a device as the above. For
what is meant by a modal predicate, by the predicate
'probably mortal,' for instance, in the proposition 'All poisonings
by arsenic are probably mortal'? If the analogy with
ordinary pure propositions is to hold good, it must be a
predicate referring to the _whole_ of the subject, for the subject
is distributed. But then we are at once launched into
the difficulties discussed in a former chapter (Ch. VI. §§19-25),
when we attempt to justify or verify the application of
the predicate. We have to enquire (at least on the view
adopted in this work) whether the application of the predicate
'probably mortal' to the _whole_ of the subject, really
means at bottom anything else than that the predicate
'mortal' is to be applied to a _portion_ (more than half) of the
members denoted by the subject. When the transference of
the modality to the predicate raises such intricate questions
as to the sense in which the predicate is to be interpreted,
there is surely nothing gained by the step.
5. A second, and more summary way of shelving all
difficulties of the subject, so far at least as logic, or the
writers upon logic, are concerned, is found by simply denying
that modality has any connection whatever with logic. This
is the course adopted by many modern writers, for instance,
by Hamilton and Mansel, in reference to whom one cannot
help remarking that an unduly large portion of their logical
writings seems occupied with telling us what does _not_ belong
to logic. They justify their rejection on the ground that
the mode belongs to the matter, and must be determined by
a consideration of the matter, and therefore is extralogical.
To a certain extent I agree with their grounds of rejection,
for (as explained in Chapter VI.) it is not easy to see how
the degree of modality of any proposition, whether premise
or conclusion, can be justified without appeal to the matter.
But then questions of justification, in any adequate sense of
the term, belong to a range of considerations somewhat alien
to Hamilton's and Mansel's way of regarding the science.
The complete justification of our inferences is a matter
which involves their truth or falsehood, a point with which
these writers do not much concern themselves, being only
occupied with the consistency of our reasonings, not with
their conformity with fact. Were I speaking as a Hamiltonian
I should say that modality _is_ formal rather than
material, for though we cannot justify the degree of our
belief of a proposition without appeal to the matter, we can
to a moderate degree of accuracy estimate it without any
such appeal; and this would seem to be quite enough to
warrant its being regarded as formal.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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