The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Regarded, however, as a logical division, Kant's arrangement
seems to me of very little service. For such logical
purposes indeed, as we are now concerned with, it really
seems to resolve itself into a _two_-fold division. The distinction
between the apodeictic and the assertory will be
admitted, I presume, even by those who accept the metaphysical
or psychological theory upon which it rests, to be a
difference which concerns, not the quantity of belief with
which the judgments are entertained, but rather the violence
which would have to be done to the mind by the attempt to
upset them. Each is fully believed, but the one can, and
the other cannot, be controverted. The belief with which an
assertory judgment is entertained is full belief, else it would
not differ from the problematic; and therefore in regard to
the quantity of belief, as distinguished from the quality or
character of it, there is no difference between it and the apodeictic.
It is as though, to offer an illustration, the index
had been already moved to the top of the scale in the assertory
judgment, and all that was done to convert this into
an apodeictic one, was to _clamp_ it there. The only logical
difference which then remains is that between problematic
and assertory, the former comprehending all the judgments
as to the truth of which we have any degree of doubt, and
the latter those of which we have no doubt. The whole
range of the former, therefore, with which Probability is
appropriately occupied, is thrown undivided into a single
compartment. We can hardly speak of a 'division' where
one class includes everything up to the boundary line, and
the other is confined to that boundary line. Practically,
therefore, on this view, modality, as the mathematical student
of Probability would expect to find it, as completely
disappears as if it were intended to reject it.
19. By less consistent and systematic thinkers, and
by those in whom ingenuity was an over prominent feature,
a variety of other arrangements have been accepted or proposed.
There is, of course, some justification for such attempts
in the laudable desire to bring our logical forms into better
harmony with ordinary thought and language. In practice,
as was pointed out in an earlier chapter, every one recognizes
a great variety of modal forms, such as 'likely,' 'very
likely,' 'almost certainly,' and so on almost without limit in
each direction. It was doubtless supposed that, by neglecting
to make use of technical equivalents for some of these
forms, we should lose our logical control over certain possible
kinds of inference, and so far fall short even of the precision
of ordinary thought.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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