The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
With regard to such additional forms, it appears to me
that all those which have been introduced by writers who
were uninfluenced by the Theory of Probability, have done
little else than create additional confusion, as such writers do
not attempt to marshal their terms in order, or to ascertain
their mutual relations. Omitting, of course, forms obviously
of material modality, we have already mentioned the true
and the false; the probable, the supposed, and the certain.
These subdivisions seem to have reached their climax at a
very early stage in Occam (Prantl, III. 380), who held that a
proposition might be modally affected by being 'vera, scita,
falsa, ignota, scripta, prolata, concepta, credita, opinata, dubitata.'
20. Since the growth of the science of Probability,
logicians have had better opportunities of knowing what
they had to aim at; and, though it cannot be said that their
attempts have been really successful, these are at any rate a
decided improvement upon those of their predecessors. Dr
Thomson,[14] for instance, gives a nine-fold division. He says
that, arranging the degrees of modality in an ascending
scale, we find that a judgment may be either possible,
doubtful, probable, morally certain for the thinker himself,
morally certain for a class or school, morally certain for all,
physically certain with a limit, physically certain without
limitation, and mathematically certain. Many other divisions
might doubtless be mentioned, but, as every mathematician
will recognize, the attempt to secure any general
agreement in such a matter of arrangement is quite hopeless.
It is here that the beneficial influence of the mathematical
theory of Probability is to be gratefully acknowledged. As
soon as this came to be studied it must have been perceived
that in attempting to mark off clearly from one another
certain gradations of belief, we should be seeking for breaches
in a continuous magnitude. In the advance from a slight
presumption to a strong presumption, and from that to moral
certainty, we are making a gradual ascent, in the course of
which there are no natural halting-places. The proof of this
continuity need not be entered upon here, for the materials
for it will have been gathered from almost every chapter of
this work. The reader need merely be reminded that the
grounds of our belief, in all cases which admit of number and
measurement, are clearly seen to be of this description; and
that therefore unless the belief itself is to be divorced from
the grounds on which it rests, what thus holds as to their
characteristics must hold also as to its own.
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