The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
This is a statement of the standard, with which the
logician and scientific man can easily quarrel; and they
may with much reason maintain that it has not the slightest
claim to accuracy, even if it had one to strict intelligibility.
If a man wishes to know whether his present degree of certainty
_is_ reasonable, whither is he to appeal? He can
scarcely compare his mental state with that which is experienced
in 'the important affairs of life,' for these, as
already remarked, would indicate no fixed value. At the
same time, one cannot suppose that such an expression is
destitute of all signification. People would not continue to
use language, especially in matters of paramount importance
and interest, without meaning something by it. We are
driven therefore to conclude that 'reasonable certainty' does
in a rude sort of way represent a traditional standard to
which it is attempted to adhere. As already remarked, this
is perfectly practicable in the case of any class of professional
men, and therefore not altogether impossible in the case of
those who are often and closely brought into connection with
such a class. Though it is hard to believe that any such
expressions, when used for purposes of ordinary life, attain
at all near enough to any conventional standard to be worth
discussion; yet in the special case of a jury, acting under
the direct influence of a judge, it seems quite possible that
their deliberate assertion that they are 'fully convinced'
may reach somewhat more nearly to a tolerably fixed standard
than ordinary outsiders would at first think likely.
32. Are there then any means by which we could
ascertain what this standard is; in other words, by which we
could determine what is the real worth, in respect of accuracy,
of this 'reasonable certainty' which the juries are supposed
to secure? In the absence of authoritative declarations
upon the subject, the student of Logic and Probability
would naturally resort to two means, with a momentary
notice of which we will conclude this enquiry.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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