The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Some writers indeed altogether deny that any standard,
in the common sense of the word, either is, or ought to be,
aimed at in legal proceedings. For instance, Sir J. F.
Stephen, in his work on English Criminal Law,[25] after
noticing and rejecting such standards as that last indicated,
comes to the conclusion that the only standard recognized
by our law is that which induces juries to convict:--"What
is judicial proof? That which being permitted by
law to be given in evidence, induces twelve men, chosen
according to the Jury Act, to say that, having heard it, their
minds are satisfied of the truth of the proposition which it
affirms. They may be prejudiced, they may be timid, they
may be rash, they may be ignorant; but the oath, the
number, and the property qualification, are intended, as far
as possible, to neutralize these disadvantages, and answer
precisely to the conditions imposed upon standards of value
or length." (p. 263.)
To admit this is much about the same thing as to abandon
such a standard as unattainable. Evidence which induces
a jury to convict may doubtless be a standard to me and
others of what we ought to consider 'reasonably certain,'
provided of course that the various juries are tolerably uniform
in their conclusions. But it clearly cannot be proposed
as a standard to the juries themselves; if their decisions are
to be consistent and uniform, they want some external indication
to guide them. When a man is asking, _How_ certain
ought I to feel? to give such an answer as the above is,
surely, merely telling him that he is to be as certain as
he is. If, indeed, juries composed a close profession, they
might, as was said above, retain a traditional standard. But
being, as they are, a selection from the ordinary lay public,
their own decisions in the past can hardly be held up to
them as a direction what they are to do in future.
31. It would appear therefore that we may fairly say
that the English law, at any rate, definitely rejects the main
assumption upon which the logical doctrine of modality and
its legal counterpart are based: the assumption, namely, that
different grades of conviction can be marked off from one
another with sufficient accuracy for us to be able to refer
individual cases to their corresponding classes. And that
with regard to the collateral question of fixing a standard of
certainty, it will go no further than pronouncing, or implying,
that we are to be content with nothing short of, but
need not go beyond, 'reasonable certainty.'
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account