The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Mr Galton, for instance,--to whom every branch of the
theory of statistics owes so much,--has insisted[7] that the
"assumption which lies at the basis of the well-known law of
'Frequency of Error'... is incorrect in many groups of vital
and social phenomena.... For example, suppose we endeavour
to match a tint; Fechner's law, in its approximative and
simplest form of sensation = log stimulus, tells us that a
series of tints, in which the quantities of white scattered on a
black ground are as 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, &c., will appear to the
eye to be separated by equal intervals of tint. Therefore, in
matching a grey that contains 8 portions of white, we are
just as likely to err by selecting one that has 16 portions as
one that has 4 portions. In the first case there would be an
error in excess, of 8; in the second there would be an error,
in deficiency, of 4. Therefore, an error of the same magnitude
in excess or in deficiency is not equally probable." The consequences
of this assumption are worked out in a remarkable
paper by Dr D. McAlister, to which allusion will have to be
made again hereafter. All that concerns us here to point out
is that when the results of statistics of this character are
arranged graphically we do _not_ get a curve which is symmetrical
on both sides of a central axis.
8. More recently, Mr F. Y. Edgeworth (in a report of
a Committee of the British Association appointed to enquire
into the variation of the monetary standard) has urged the
same considerations in respect of prices of commodities. He
gives a number of statistics "drawn from the prices of twelve
commodities during the two periods 1782-1820, 1820-1865.
The maximum and minimum entry for each series having
been noted, it is found that the number of entries above the
'middle point,' half-way between the maximum and minimum,[8]
is in every instance less than half the total number of entries
in the series. In the twenty-four trials there is not a single
exception to the rule, and in very few cases even an approach
to an exception. We may presume then that the curves are
of the lop-sided character indicated by the accompanying
diagram." The same facts are also ascertained in respect to
_place_ variations as distinguished from time variations. To
these may be added some statistics of my own, referring to
the heights of the barometer taken at the same hour on more
than 4000 successive days (v. _Nature_, Sept. 2, 1887). So far
as these go they show a marked asymmetry of arrangement.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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