The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
(2) The same peculiarity prevails again in the force
and frequency of most natural agencies. Wind and weather
are seen to lose their proverbial irregularity when examined
on a large scale. Man's work therefore, when operated on
by such agencies as these, even though it had been made in
different cases absolutely alike to begin with, afterwards
shows only a general regularity. I may sow exactly the
same amount of seed in my field every year. The yield may
one year be moderate, the next year be abundant through
favourable weather, and then again in turn be destroyed by
hail. But in the long run these irregularities will be equalized
in the result of my crops, because they are equalized in the
power and frequency of the productive agencies. The
business of underwriters, and offices which insure the crops
against hail, would fall under this class; though, as already
remarked, there is no very profound distinction between them
and the former class.
The reader must be reminded again that this fixity is
only temporary, that is, that even here the series belong to
the class of those which possess a fluctuating type. Those
indeed who believe in the fixity of natural species will have
the best chance of finding a series of the really permanent
type amongst them, though even they will admit that some
change in the characteristic is attainable in length of time.
In the case of the principal natural agencies, it is of course
incontestable that the present average is referable to the
present geological period only. Our average temperature
and average rainfall have in former times been widely
different from what they now are, and doubtless will be so again.
Any fuller investigation of the process by which, on the
Theory of Evolution, out of a primeval simplicity and uniformity
the present variety was educed, hardly belongs to
the scope of the present work: at most, a few hints must suffice.
11. The above, then, are instances of natural objects
and natural agencies. There seems reason to believe that it
is in such things only, as distinguished from things artificial,
that the property in question is to be found. This is an assertion
that will need some discussion and explanation. Two
instances, in apparent opposition, will at once occur to the
mind of some readers; one of which, from its great intrinsic
importance, and the other, from the frequency of the problems
which it furnishes, will demand a few minutes' separate
examination.
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