The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
(1) The first of these is the already mentioned case of
instrumental observations. In the use of astronomical and
other instruments the utmost possible degree of accuracy is
often desired, a degree which cannot be reasonably hoped for
in any one single observation. What we do therefore in
these cases is to make a large number of successive observations
which are naturally found to differ somewhat from each
other in their results; by means of these the true value
(as explained in a future chapter, on the Method of Least
Squares) is to be determined as accurately as possible. The
subjects then of calculation here are a certain number of
elements, slightly incorrect elements, given by successive
observations. Are not these observations artificial, or the
direct product of voluntary agency? Certainly not: or rather,
the answer depends on what we understand by voluntary.
What is really intended and aimed at by the observer, is of
course, perfect accuracy, that is, the true observation, or the
voluntary steps and preliminaries on which this observation
depends. Whether voluntary or not, this result only can be
called intentional. But this result is not obtained. What
we actually get in its place is a series of deviations from it,
containing results more or less wide of the truth. Now by
what are these deviations caused? By just such agencies as
we have been considering in some of the earlier sections in
this chapter. Heat and its irregular warping influence,
draughts of air producing their corresponding effects, dust
and consequent friction in one part or another, the slight
distortion of the instrument by strains or the slow uneven
contraction which continues long after the metal was cast;
these and such as these are some of the causes which divert
us from the truth. Besides this group, there are others
which certainly do depend upon human agency, but which
are not, strictly speaking, voluntary. They are such as the
irregular action of the muscles, inability to make our various
organs and members execute precisely the purposes we have
in mind, perhaps different rates in the rapidity of the nervous
currents, or in the response to stimuli, in the same or
different observers. The effect produced by some of these,
and the allowance that has in consequence to be made, are
becoming familiar even to the outside world under the name
of the 'personal equation' in astronomical, psychophysical,
and other observations.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account