The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
12. (2) The other example, alluded to above, is the stock
one of cards and dice. Here, as in the last case, the result
is remotely voluntary, in the sense that deliberate volition
presents itself at one stage. But subsequently to this stage,
the result is produced or affected by so many involuntary
agencies that it owes its characteristic properties to these.
The turning up, for example, of a particular face of a die is
the result of voluntary agency, but it is not an immediate
result. That particular face was not chosen, though the fact
of its being chosen was the remote consequence of an act of
choice. There has been an intermediate chaos of conflicting
agencies, which no one can calculate before or distinguish
afterwards. These agencies seem to show a uniformity in
the long run, and thence to produce a similar uniformity in
the result. The drawing of a card from a pack is indeed
more directly volitional, as in cutting for partners in a game
of whist. But no one continues to do this long without
having the pack well shuffled in the interval, whereby a host
of involuntary influences are let in.
13. The once startling but now familiar uniformities
exhibited in the cases of suicides and misdirected letters, do
not belong to the same class. The final resolution, or want
of it, which leads to these results, is in each case indeed an
important ingredient in the individual's action or omission;
but, in so far as volition has anything to do with the results
_as a whole_, it instantly disturbs them. If the voice of the
Legislature speaks out, or any great preacher or moralist
succeeds in deterring, or any impressive example in influencing,
our moral statistics are instantly tampered with.
Some further discussion will be devoted to this subject in a
future chapter; it need only be remarked here that (always
excluding such common or general influence as those just
mentioned) the average volition, potent as it is in each
separate case, is on the whole swayed by non-voluntary conditions,
such as those of health, the casualties of employment, &c.,
in fact the various circumstances which influence
the length of a man's life.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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