The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
The general conclusion at which we arrive is that there
are several causes at work which are neither slight nor independent.
There is, for instance, the observed fact that the
extremes are as a rule not equally fertile with the means,
nor equally capable of resisting death and disease. Hence
as regards their mere numbers, there is a tendency for them
somewhat to thin out. Then again there is a distinct
positive cause in respect of 'reversion.' Not only are the
offspring of the extremes less numerous, but these offspring
also tend to cluster about a mean which is, so to say, shifted
a little towards the true centre of the whole group; i.e. towards
the mean offspring of the mean parents.
18. For a full discussion of these characteristics, and
for a variety of most ingenious illustrations of their mode of
agency and of their comparative efficacy, the reader may be
referred to Mr Galton's original articles. For our present
purpose it will suffice to say that these characteristics tend
towards maintaining the fixity of species; and that though
they do not affect what may be called the general nature of
the 'probability curve' or 'law of facility', they do determine
its precise value in the cases in question. If, indeed, it be
asked why there is no need for any such corrective influence
in the case of, say, firing at a mark: the answer is that there
is no opening for it except where a _cumulative_ influence is introduced.
The reason why the fortunes of our betting party
showed an ever increasing divergency, and why some special
correction was needed in order to avert such a tendency in
the case of vital phenomena, was that the new starting-point
at every step was slightly determined by the results of the
previous step. The man who has lost a shilling one time
starts, next time, worse off by just a shilling; and, but for
the corrections we have been indicating, the man who was
born tall would, so to say, throw off his descendants from a
vantage ground of superior height. The true parallel in the
case of the marksmen would be to suppose that their new
points of aim were always shifted a little in the direction of
the last divergence. The spreading out of the shot-marks
would then continue without limit, just as would the divergence
of fortunes of the supposed gamblers.
1. As stated above, this is really little more than a re-statement, a
stage further back, of the existence of the same kind of uniformity
as that which we are called upon to explain in the concrete details
presented to us in experience.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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