The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
2. "It would seem in fact that in coarse and rude observations the
errors proceed from a _very few_ principal causes, and in
consequence our hypothesis [as to the Exponential Law of Error] will
probably represent the facts only imperfectly, and the frequency of
the errors will only approximate roughly and vaguely to the law
which follows from it. But when astronomers, not content with the
degree of accuracy they had reached, prosecuted their researches
into the remaining sources of error, they found that not three or
four, but a _great number_ of minor sources of error of nearly
co-ordinate importance began to reveal themselves, having been till
then masked and overshadowed by the graver errors which had been now
approximately removed.... There were errors of graduation, and many
others in the contraction of instruments; other errors of their
adjustments; errors (technically so called) of _observation_; errors
from the changes of temperature, of weather, from slight irregular
motions and vibrations; in short, the thousand minute disturbing
influences with which modern astronomers are familiar." (Extracted
from a paper by Mr Crofton in the Vol. of the _Philosophical
Transactions_ for 1870, p. 177.)
3. _Typical Laws of Heredity_; read before the Royal Institution,
Feb. 9, 1877. See also _Journal of the Anthrop. Inst._ Nov. 1885.
CHAPTER IV.
_ON THE MODES OF ESTABLISHING AND DETERMINING THE EXISTENCE AND
NUMERICAL PROPORTIONS OF THE CHARACTERISTIC PROPERTIES OF OUR SERIES
OR GROUPS._
1. At the point which we have now reached, we are
supposed to be in possession of series or groups of a certain
kind, lying at the bottom, as one may say, and forming the
foundation on which the Science of Probability is to be
erected. We have described with sufficient particularity the
characteristics of such a series, and have indicated the process
by which it is, as a rule, actually brought about in
nature. The next enquiries which have to be successively
made are, how in any particular case we are to establish
their existence and determine their special character and
properties? and secondly,[1] when we have obtained them, in
what mode are they to be employed for logical purposes?
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