The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
5. The close connection between these subjects is well indicated in
the title of Mr Whitworth's treatise, _Choice and Chance_.
6. _Essai Philosophique_. Ed. 1825, p. 74.
7. An opinion prevailed rather at one time (quoted and supported by
Quetelet amongst others) that the relative ages of the parents had
something to do with the sex of the offspring. If this were so, it
would quite bear out the above remarks. As a matter of fact, it
should be observed, that the proportion of 106 to 100 does not seem
by any means universal in all countries or at all times. For various
statistical tables on the subject see Quetelet, _Physique Sociale_,
Vol. I. 166, 173, 238.
CHAPTER V.
_THE CONCEPTION _RANDOMNESS_ AND ITS SCIENTIFIC TREATMENT._
1. There is a term of frequent occurrence in treatises
on Probability, and which we have already had repeated occasion
to employ, viz. the designation _random_ applied to an
event, as in the expression 'a random distribution'. The
scientific conception involved in the correct use of this term
is, I apprehend, nothing more than that of aggregate order
and individual irregularity (or apparent irregularity), which
has been already described in the preceding chapters. A
brief discussion of the requisites in this scientific conception,
and in particular of the nature and some of the reasons for
the departure from the popular conception, may serve to
clear up some of the principal remaining difficulties which
attend this part of our subject.
The original,[1] and still popular, signification of the term
is of course widely different from the scientific. What it
looks to is the origin, not the results, of the random performance,
and it has reference rather to the single action
than to a group or series of actions. Thus, when a man
draws a bow 'at a venture', or 'at random', we mean only
to point out the aimless character of the performance;
we are contrasting it with the definite intention to hit a
certain mark. But it is none the less true, as already
pointed out, that we can only apply processes of inference to
such performances as these when we regard them as being
capable of frequent, or rather of indefinitely extended repetition.
Begin with an illustration. Perhaps the best typical
example that we can give of the scientific meaning of
random distribution is afforded by the arrangement of the
drops of rain in a shower. No one can give a guess whereabouts
at any instant a drop will fall, but we know that if
we put out a sheet of paper it will gradually become uniformly
spotted over; and that if we were to mark out any
two equal areas on the paper these would gradually tend
to be struck equally often.
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