The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
If the question were one which it were really worth
while to work out on these lines we should be led a long
way back. Just as we imagined our rifleman's position (on
the second supposition) to be determined by two independent
coordinates of assumed continuous and equal facility,
so we might conceive our making the attempt to analyse the
man's movements into a certain number of independent
constituents. We might suppose all the various directions
from his starting point, along the ground, to be equally
likely; and that when he reaches the shelves the random
motion of his hand is to be regulated after the fashion of a
shot discharged at random.
The above would be one way of setting about the statement
of the problem. But the reader will understand that
all which I am here proposing to maintain is that in these,
as in every similar case, we always encounter, under this
conception of 'randomness', at some stage or other, this
postulate of ultimate uniformity of distribution over some
assigned magnitude: either time; or space, linear, superficial,
or solid. But the selection of the stage at which this is to
be applied may give rise to considerable difficulty, and even
arbitrariness of choice.
5. Some years ago there was a very interesting discussion
upon this subject carried on in the mathematical part of
the _Educational Times_ (see, especially, Vol. VII.). As not
unfrequently happens in mathematics there was an almost
entire accord amongst the various writers as to the assumptions
practically to be made in any particular case, and therefore
as to the conclusion to be drawn, combined with a very
considerable amount of difference as to the axioms and definitions
to be employed. Thus Mr M. W. Crofton, with the
substantial agreement of Mr Woolhouse, laid it down unhesitatingly
that "at random" has "a very clear and definite
meaning; one which cannot be better conveyed than by Mr
Wilson's definition, '_according to no law_'; and in this sense
alone I mean to use it." According to any scientific interpretation
of 'law' I should have said that where there was
no law there could be no inference. But ultimate tendency
towards equality of distribution is as much taken for granted
by Mr Crofton as by any one else: in fact he makes this a
deduction from his definition:--"As this infinite system of
parallels are drawn according to no law, they are as thickly
disposed along any part of the [common] perpendicular as
along any other" (VII. p. 85). Mr Crofton holds that any
kind of _unequal_ distribution would imply law,--"If the points
[on a plane] tended to become denser in any part of the plane
than in another, there must be some law attracting them
there" (ib. p. 84). The same view is enforced in his paper
on _Local Probability_ (in the _Phil. Trans._, Vol. 158). Surely
if they tend to become _equally_ dense this is just as much
a case of regularity or law.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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