The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
(1) If the events or objects under consideration are supposed
to be continued indefinitely, or if we know enough
about the mode in which they are brought about to detect
their ultimate tendency,--or even, short of this, if they are
numerous enough to be beyond practical counting,--there is
no great difficulty. We are simply confronted with a question
of fact, to be settled like other questions of fact. In the
case of the rain-drops, watch two equal squares of pavement
or other surfaces, and note whether they come to be more
and more densely uniformly and evenly spotted over: if they
do, then the arrangement is what we call a random one. If
I want to know whether a tobacco-pipe really breaks at random,
and would therefore serve as an illustration of the
problem proposed some pages back, I have only to drop
enough of them and see whether pieces of all possible lengths
are equally represented in the long run. Or, I may argue
deductively, from what I know about the strength of materials
and the molecular constitution of such bodies, as to
whether fractures of small and large pieces are all equally
likely to occur.
11. The reader's attention must be carefully directed
to a source of confusion here, arising out of a certain cross-division.
What we are now discussing is a question of fact,
viz. the nature of a certain ultimate arrangement; we are
not discussing the particular way in which it is brought
about. In other words, the antithesis is between what is and
what is not random: it is not between what is random and
what is designed. As we shall see in a few moments it is
quite possible that an arrangement which is the result,--if
ever anything were so,--of 'design', may nevertheless present
the unmistakeable stamp of randomness of arrangement.
Consider a case which has been a good deal discussed,
and to which we shall revert again: the arrangement of the
stars. The question here is rather complicated by the fact
that we know nothing about the actual mutual positions of
the stars, all that we can take cognizance of being their apparent
or visible places as projected upon the surface of a
supposed sphere. Appealing to what alone we can thus
observe, it is obvious that the arrangement, as a whole, is
not of the random sort. The Milky Way and the other resolvable
nebulæ, as they present themselves to us, are as obvious
an infraction of such an arrangement as would be the
occurrence here and there of patches of ground in a rainfall
which received a vast number more drops than the spaces
surrounding them. If we leave these exceptional areas out
of the question and consider only the stars which are visible
by the naked eye or by slight telescopic power, it seems
equally certain that the arrangement _is_, for the most part, a
fairly representative random one. By this we mean nothing
more than the fact that when we mark off any number of
equal areas on the visible sphere these are found to contain
approximately the same number of stars.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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