The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
I cannot but think that there is a similar fallacy in De Morgan's
admirably suggestive paper on _Infinity_ (_Camb.
Phil. Trans._ Vol. 11.) when he is discussing the "three-point
problem":--i.e. given three points taken at random find the
chance that they shall form an acute-angled triangle. All
that he shows is, that if we start with _one side as given_ and
consider the subsequent possible positions of the opposite
vertex, there are infinitely as many such positions which
would form an acute-angled triangle as an obtuse: but, as
before, this is solving a different problem.
9. The nearest approach I can make towards true indefinite
randomness, or random selection from true indefiniteness,
is as follows. Suppose a circle with a tangent line extended
indefinitely in each direction. Now from the centre draw
radii at random; in other words, let the semicircumference
which lies towards the tangent be ultimately uniformly intersected
by the radii. Let these radii be then produced so as
to intersect the tangent line, and consider the distribution
of these points of intersection. We shall obtain in the result
_one_ characteristic of our random distribution; i.e. no portion
of this tangent, however small or however remote, but will
find itself in the position ultimately of any small portion of
the pavement in our supposed continual rainfall. That is,
any such elementary patch will become more and more closely
dotted over with the points of intersection. But the other
essential characteristic, viz. that of ultimately _uniform_ distribution,
will be missing. There will be a special form of
distribution,--what in fact will have to be discussed in a
future chapter under the designation of a 'law of error',--by
virtue of which the concentration will tend to be greatest at
a certain point (that of contact with the circle), and will thin
out from here in each direction according to an easily
calculated formula. The existence of such a state of things
as this is quite opposed to the conception of true randomness.
10. III. Apart from definitions and what comes of
them, perhaps the most important question connected with
the conception of Randomness is this: How in any given
case are we to determine whether an observed arrangement
is to be considered a random one or not? This question will
have to be more fully discussed in a future chapter, but we
are already in a position to see our way through some of the
difficulties involved in it.
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