The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
This was the state of things had in view when it was
said a few pages back that randomness and design would
result in something of a cross-division. Plenty of arrangements
in which design had a hand, a stage or two back, can
be mentioned, which would be quite indistinguishable in
their results from those in which no design whatever could
be traced. Perhaps the most striking case in point here is
to be found in the arrangement of the digits in one of the
natural arithmetical constants, such as π or e, or in a table
of logarithms. If we look to the process of production of
these digits, no extremer instance can be found of what we
mean by the antithesis of randomness: every figure has its
necessarily pre-ordained position, and a moment's flagging of
intention would defeat the whole purpose of the calculator.
And yet, if we look to results only, no better instance can
be found than one of these rows of digits if it were intended
to illustrate what we practically understand by a chance
arrangement of a number of objects. Each digit occurs
approximately equally often, and this tendency develops as
we advance further: the mutual juxtaposition of the digits
also shows the same tendency, that is, any digit (say 5) is
just as often followed by 6 or 7 as by any of the others. In
fact, if we were to take the whole row of hitherto calculated
figures, cut off the first five as familiar to us all, and contemplate
the rest, no one would have the slightest reason
to suppose that these had not come out as the results of a
die with ten equal faces.
14. If it be asked _why_ this is so, a rather puzzling
question is raised. Wherever physical causation is involved
we are generally understood to have satisfied the demand
implied in this question if we assign antecedents which will
be followed regularly by the event before us; but in geometry
and arithmetic there is no opening for antecedents. What
we then commonly look for is a demonstration, i.e. the resolution
of the observed fact into axioms if possible, or at
any rate into admitted truths of wider generality. I do not
know that a demonstration can be given as to the existence
of this characteristic of statistical randomness in such successions
of digits as those under consideration. But the
following remarks may serve to shift the onus of unlikelihood
by suggesting that the preponderance of analogy is
rather in favour of the existence.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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