The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Take the well-known constant π for consideration. This
stands for a quantity which presents itself in a vast number
of arithmetical and geometrical relations; let us take for
examination the best known of these, by regarding it as
standing for the ratio of the circumference to the diameter
of a circle. So regarded, it is nothing more than a simple
case of the measurement of a magnitude by an arbitrarily
selected unit. Conceive then that we had before us a rod
or line and that we wished to measure it with absolute
accuracy. We must suppose--if we are to have a suitable
analogue to the determination of π to several hundred
figures,--that by the application of continued higher magnifying
power we can detect ever finer subdivisions in the
graduation. We lay our rod against the scale and find it,
say, fall between 31 and 32 inches; we then look at the
next division of the scale, viz. that into tenths of an inch.
Can we see the slightest reason why the number of these
tenths should be other than independent of the number of
whole inches? The "piece over" which we are measuring
may in fact be regarded as an entirely new piece, which had
fallen into our hands after that of 31 inches had been
measured and done with; and similarly with every successive
piece over, as we proceed to the ever finer and finer divisions.
Similar remarks may be made about most other incommensurable
quantities, such as irreducible roots. Conceive
two straight lines at right angles, and that we lay off a
certain number of inches along each of these from the point
of intersection; say two and five inches, and join the extremities
of these so as to form the diagonal of a right-angled
triangle. If we proceed to measure this diagonal in terms
of either of the other lines we are to all intents and purposes
extracting a square root. We should expect, rather than
otherwise, to find here, as in the case of π, that incommensurability
and resultant randomness of order in the digits
was the rule, and commensurability was the exception. Now
and then, as when the two sides were three and four, we
should find the diagonal commensurable with them; but
these would be the occasional exceptions, or rather they
would be the comparatively finite exceptions amidst the
indefinitely numerous cases which furnished the rule.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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