The Mathematical-Historical Principles and the Evolution of LibertyFernández Bolívar, Víctor José
Philosophy
The Mathematical-Historical Principles and the Evolution of Liberty
Fernández Bolívar, Víctor José
History -- Philosophy
The
most acute criticism was presented by the French philosopher, Charles
Renouvier, who, in a very ingenious manner, reduced Spencer�s extreme
evolutionism into the absurd. In his book, �Uchronia�, he shows that in the
history of humanity there is no infinite continuity, but that once and again
cisures are produced and where from something finished something new is
started.
Let
us now see the cyclical aspect to war and peace. The periodicity of
approximately 50 years has been found in wars having worldly importance, only
in the XVIII, XIX centuries and the beginning of the XX century.� In the space
of approximately 200 years, five great warlike periods: the Spanish War of
Succession, the three Sicilian Wars, the fist Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War,
the National Wars for the Unity of Italy and Germany, the American War of
Secession, and the First World War. Toybee himself does not want to believe or
admit the very optimistic forecast that the chart presents:� Finding ourselves
in the beginning of a great period of universal peace.�
Toybee�s
scheme is even less useful for prediction than the most ancient theory of the
50-year cycle. There is also the interpretation of the 1:2 relationship. After
thirteen years of the Spanish War of Succession (1701-1714), there followed 26
years of peace; the period of the Sicilian Wars which, with varied intervals
lasted 23 years, were followed by 33 years of peace; the period of 19 years of
the Napoleonic wars (1796-1815), was followed by a period of 38 years of peace
that extended until the Crimean War in 1853. The period of war that begins
lasts 18 years until the end of the Franco-Prussian conflict in 1871, followed
by an era of relative tranquility that lasts 40 years and extends until the
Italo-Turkish war in 1911.
Afterwards,
in Eastern Europe, before and after the First World War, there are almost
uninterrupted warlike actions that extend until 1920. Peace follows this stage
of 9 years. The Second World War lasted 6 years, but the annexations of Austria
and Czechoslovakia in 1938 made by Hitler, without bloodshed must be added.
Then, if a period of 7 to 8 years must be followed by one of peace of a double
duration, according to a 1:2 relation, it could be said that in 1960 a new era
of war should have begun.�
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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