The Monist, Vol. 3, 1892-1893 : $b A quarterly magazineVarious
Philosophy
The Monist, Vol. 3, 1892-1893 : $b A quarterly magazine
Various
Philosophy -- Periodicals
Gunpowder was, according to the legend, invented by chance. Berthold
Schwartz intended to make gold, yet when the mixture was ignited, he
began to understand that it was an explosive. When I say that I met
a friend by chance, I mean that the meeting was unintentional. I had
not foreseen it and perhaps could not foresee it. When we call a throw
of dice pure chance, we mean that the incidents which condition the
turning up of these or those special faces of the dice have not been or
cannot be calculated. We do not mean that the law of cause and effect is
suspended; we mean that we are unable to determine the effect. That which
would make this or that throw _eindeutig bestimmt_ is either not known to
us, or, if it were known, is of such a nature that we cannot produce the
desired effect with any certainty. Matters are so arranged in the game of
dice that the slightest incident changes the result, and these incidents
are either not within our ken or not within the range of our power.
Chance, accordingly, as we understand it, is no exception to necessity;
it does not happen contrary to law, and is in each case the strict result
of a definite cause under definite circumstances.
Absolute chance is something quite different. Absolute chance is that
which is incalculable because of the absence of law. Mr. Peirce says:
“Another argument, or convenient commonplace, is that absolute
chance is _inconceivable_. This word has eight current
significations. The ‘Century Dictionary’ enumerates six. Those
who talk like this will hardly be persuaded to say in what
sense they mean that chance is inconceivable.”
Absolute chance is “inconceivable” as the word is defined by the “Century
Dictionary” in the second sense: It is
“unacceptable to the mind because involving a violation of laws
believed to be well established by positive evidence.”
Absolute chance is not unthinkable in the sense of unimaginable. We can
very well depict a case of absolute chance in our imagination, just as
we can tell and describe in minutest details the fairy tale of Alladin’s
lamp; just as we can in our imagination depict a creation out of nothing.
But he who accepts that the world is in its innermost nature a cosmos,
that its events are strictly and throughout regulated by law, cannot
at the same time think that there are nooks and crevices in which the
law does not operate. Absolute chance actually involves the idea of a
creation out of nothing; and thus it stands in contradiction to the law
of the preservation of matter and energy. Absolute chance which means
that the very same thing under the very same conditions can act in this
or in some other way, that it need not act in exactly the same way,
involves a belief in either the creation of a not existing quality out
of nothing, or the disappearance of existing qualities into nothing.
Mr. Peirce says:
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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