In this country, while naval and military people use this method in their comparatively minor problems, the country at large does not use it in deciding the major problem--that is, in deciding how much navy they want, and of what composition. They do not take even the first step toward formulating a naval policy, because they do not study the "mission" of the navy--that is, _they do not study the international and national situations and their bearing on the need for a navy_. Yet until they do this they will not be in a sufficiently informed condition of mind to determine what the "mission" is--that is, what they wish the navy to be able to do--because, before they can formulate the mission they must resolve what foreign navy or navies that mission must include. If they decide that the mission of the navy is to guard our coast and trade routes against the hostile efforts of Liberia the resulting naval policy will be simple and inexpensive; while if they conclude that the mission of our navy is to guard our coast and trade routes against the hostile acts of _any_ navy the resulting naval policy will be so difficult and costly as to tax the brain and wealth of the country to a degree that will depend on _the length of time that will elapse before the date at which the navy must be ready to fulfil that mission_. This factor reminds us of another factor: _the minimum time in which the navy can get ready to fulfil a given mission_ (for instance, to protect us against any navy); and we cannot decide the mission correctly without taking this factor into account. For example, it would be foolish to decide that the mission of our navy is to protect us _now_ against any navy, including the greatest, when it would take us at least twenty years to develop and train a navy to accomplish that task; and it would be equally foolish to decide that the mission is to protect us against any navy _except_ the greatest, because such a decision could rest on no other ground than present improbability of conflict with the greatest navy, or improbability for the very few years ahead (say two or three) which we poor mortals can forecast. This reasoning seems to indicate that the first step in formulating a naval policy for the United States is to realize that any conclusion as to which navies should be included in the mission of our navy must not exclude any navy about whose peaceful conduct toward us we can entertain a reasonable doubt, _during the period of time which we would require to get ready to meet her_. For instance, inasmuch as it would take us at least twenty years to get ready to protect ourselves against the hostile efforts of the British navy, we cannot exclude even that navy from a consideration of the mission of our own, unless we entertain no doubt of the peaceful attitude of that navy toward us for at least that twenty years.