All such difficulties are enormously aggravated by a consideration
which, obvious as it is, seems seldom to be considered. The arguments we
commonly hear appear to imply that _one_ parent is sufficient to secure
the transmission of a beneficial variation to the next generation. But,
of course, the parent requires a mate, and unless this mate has chanced
to hit on the same line of variation, it cannot be supposed that it will
be transmitted. Seeing, however, the exceeding minuteness of these
variations in each instance, they can avail nothing to bring together
the right mates to perpetuate them. Two reptiles, for instance, are not
the more likely to pair because their fore limbs have taken the first
faint and distant step towards becoming wings, while in the vegetable
kingdom, notwithstanding Erasmus Darwin's _Loves of the Plants_, the
idea of any choice of partners is still more grotesque. The allotment of
mates must therefore be left to Chance; and the results will follow the
ordinary laws of probability. Accordingly, if we suppose so large a
proportion as five per cent., or one in twenty, of any species to
possess an advantageous variation,--only one in twenty of the
individuals thus favoured will secure a similarly favoured mate,--for
each will have nineteen wrong selections offered to him or her, for one
right one. Only one pair in four hundred will therefore transmit the
variation to five per cent. of _their_ offspring, or one in eight
thousand of the species, and of these only one pair in
a-hundred-and-sixty-thousand will make an advantageous match. Such is
the inevitable consequence of leaving any definite result to Chance: and
here it is that Natural Selection is found to betray the most fatal of
all its deficiencies; for, whatever its advocates may say, it is Chance
and Chance alone upon which it relies. Just because man can and does
select the proper mates, is he able to produce by breeding the results
to which Mr. Darwin appeals as evidence, that Nature having no such
power of selection, must be able to produce results of which man cannot
even dream.[201]
Natural Selection is in truth no selection at all, that is just its weak
point, which the title conferred upon it serves to hide. What are called
its products owe no more to it than Wellington owed his generalship to
the bullets which did not hit him at Seringapatam. If they are not
determined to a particular development they can attain it only by
Chance.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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