The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific methodJevons, William Stanley
Philosophy
The principles of science : $b a treatise on logic and scientific method
Jevons, William Stanley
Logic; Science -- Methodology
It is a question of profound difficulty on what grounds we are
warranted in inferring the future from the present, or the nature
of undiscovered objects from those which we have examined with our
senses. We pass from Perfect to Imperfect Induction when once we
allow our conclusion to apply, at all events apparently, beyond the
data on which it was founded. In making such a step we seem to gain
a net addition to our knowledge; for we learn the nature of what was
unknown. We reap where we have never sown. We appear to possess the
divine power of creating knowledge, and reaching with our mental arms
far beyond the sphere of our own observation. I shall have, indeed, to
point out certain methods of reasoning in which we do pass altogether
beyond the sphere of the senses, and acquire accurate knowledge which
observation could never have given; but it is not imperfect induction
that accomplishes such a task. Of imperfect induction itself, I venture
to assert that it never makes any real addition to our knowledge, in
the meaning of the expression sometimes accepted. As in other cases
of inference, it merely unfolds the information contained in past
observations; it merely renders explicit what was implicit in previous
experience. It transmutes, but certainly does not create knowledge.
There is no fact which I shall more constantly keep before the reader’s
mind in the following pages than that the results of imperfect
induction, however well authenticated and verified, are never more than
probable. We never can be sure that the future will be as the present.
We hang ever upon the will of the Creator: and it is only so far as He
has created two things alike, or maintains the framework of the world
unchanged from moment to moment, that our most careful inferences can
be fulfilled. All predictions, all inferences which reach beyond their
data, are purely hypothetical, and proceed on the assumption that new
events will conform to the conditions detected in our observation of
past events. No experience of finite duration can give an exhaustive
knowledge of the forces which are in operation. There is thus a
double uncertainty; even supposing the Universe as a whole to proceed
unchanged, we do not really know the Universe as a whole. We know only
a point in its infinite extent, and a moment in its infinite duration.
We cannot be sure, then, that our observations have not escaped some
fact, which will cause the future to be apparently different from the
past; nor can we be sure that the future really will be the outcome of
the past. We proceed then in all our inferences to unexamined objects
and times on the assumptions--
1. That our past observation gives us a complete knowledge of what
exists.
2. That the conditions of things which did exist will continue to be
the conditions which will exist.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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